Wallpapers |
December 18, 2025 |
Tesla Stock is "Ridiculously Overvalued". Years of shareholder dilution is the central concern. Also Tesla’s valuation remains disconnected from its fundamentals and the company continues to expand its share count with no buyback program in place to offset the effect on existing shareholders.Tesla’s SEC filings show that the company’s diluted share count has grown at an annual pace of roughly 3.5–3.7% over the past several years, driven primarily by stock-based compensation and past equity raises. Tesla’s outstanding shares have risen from approximately 1.0 billion in early 2020 to more than 3.4 billion today on a split-adjusted basis following the company’s 5-for-1 stock split in 2020 and 3-for-1 split in 2022, both of which increased the total number of shares available to the market.Tesla issued multiple major equity offerings during the 2020–2021 period, including two $5 billion at-the-market (ATM) raises in September and December 2020, followed by additional tranches in 2021 totaling roughly $12 billion in new equity issuance. These capital raises contributed significantly to the expansion of the company’s float and remain a key driver of long-term dilution.Tesla’s most recent quarterly filings, which reported over $1.7 billion in stock-based compensation (SBC) expense year-to-date, resulting in a continual increase in the weighted-average share count used for earnings calculations. Tesla continues to rely heavily on SBC as part of its employee and executive compensation structure, including multi-year, performance-based awards.Tesla has no active share-buyback program, and CEO Elon Musk has previously stated that repurchases would only be considered once the company achieves more predictable and sustained free-cash-flow levels. Absence of buybacks means shareholders absorb the full impact of ongoing dilution, particularly as the company issues new shares to employees and through equity-linked programs.This is my follow up post to my previous post on the same space which got deleted bcoz I didn't do any detailed analysis.Here you have it via /r/ValueInvesting https://ift.tt/98twpjR
Tesla Stock is "Ridiculously Overvalued". Years of shareholder dilution is the central concern. Also Tesla’s valuation remains disconnected from its fundamentals and the company continues to expand its share count with no buyback program in place to offset the effect on existing shareholders.
Tesla’s SEC filings show that the company’s diluted share count has grown at an annual pace of roughly 3.5–3.7% over the past several years, driven primarily by stock-based compensation and past equity raises. Tesla’s outstanding shares have risen from approximately 1.0 billion in early 2020 to more than 3.4 billion today on a split-adjusted basis following the company’s 5-for-1 stock split in 2020 and 3-for-1 split in 2022, both of which increased the total number of shares available to the market.
Tesla issued multiple major equity offerings during the 2020–2021 period, including two $5 billion at-the-market (ATM) raises in September and December 2020, followed by additional tranches in 2021 totaling roughly $12 billion in new equity issuance. These capital raises contributed significantly to the expansion of the company’s float and remain a key driver of long-term dilution.
Tesla’s most recent quarterly filings, which reported over $1.7 billion in stock-based compensation (SBC) expense year-to-date, resulting in a continual increase in the weighted-average share count used for earnings calculations. Tesla continues to rely heavily on SBC as part of its employee and executive compensation structure, including multi-year, performance-based awards.
Tesla has no active share-buyback program, and CEO Elon Musk has previously stated that repurchases would only be considered once the company achieves more predictable and sustained free-cash-flow levels. Absence of buybacks means shareholders absorb the full impact of ongoing dilution, particularly as the company issues new shares to employees and through equity-linked programs.
This is my follow up post to my previous post on the same space which got deleted bcoz I didn't do any detailed analysis.Here you have it
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